They'll Be Talking About The Unemployment Figures

Obama was elected. Yay! I wish him luck. I wish us all luck....except for the Fucking Republicans. May they all rot in Hell. But this post is not about them. It's about us. Us being the vast majority of U.S. Citizens who are lucky to have any kind of job. Almost a million jobs lost over the last three months which means more jobs will be lost as the impact of lost spending power hits bottom lines. It's so weird. I've spent most of the last 8 years unemployed or very underemployed. But thanks to BushCo I now have a temp job that is about to go permanent. Property Preservation. That's my new industry. There's lots of property to preserve. Shit, Goddamn, get off your ass and jam! The industry is rivaled only by the Repo industry that is also doing very well. Shit, Goddamn, get off your ass and jam! And here's me about to get a real job with benefits and everything. Why? 'Cuz I show up to work on time every day, and can write a coherent sentence. Or maybe because I do the shit job in my industry, and I do it very well. You see, I follow up after the devastation and turn off the utilities when a property has sold. Eighty percent of the job is easy and noble, but twenty percent is hard and requires the talents of an ass wipe. But I do it. For the benefits. For the income. For the sanity of a daily routine that doesn't involve 8 or more hours a day watching and waiting for operation brown fan to reach its ultimate conclusion. They say 6.7 percent unemployment. Bullshit. Maybe 11 to 15 percent unemployment is more accurate with more to come. Not because of Peak Oil. Noooo! We can't acknowledge that. If we acknowledge Peak Oil then we acknowledge that what awaits us makes the Great Depression look like a cake walk. But it's getting harder and harder to disregard Peak Oil. Yeah, the price of oil is way down. Who needs energy when people aren't working? Just think for a moment of how much our economy had to decline to destroy enough demand to justify $40.00 a barrel oil. But happy days are here again for me. I got me a real job. And I've started to drink. Heavily. Time to orphan the blog.

Or What, You'll Kill Me?

In 1994 I swallowed a piece of glass from a soda bottle. I was only 36. And having been screwed by two of the finest companies in the world, EDS and Northern Telecom, I had no insurance. The only thing I remember after agreeing to go the hospital was the doctor saying "If we don't get you on the operating table you'll be dead in an hour." I don't think I made it. Dead and in Hell. That has to be where I am. That must be the answer. Nothing, and I mean nothing, even comes close to being the way it was before I died. I've always suspected I didn't make it, but now I'm sure. I could take pretty much everything that has happened since 1994 with a grain of salt no matter how surreal or bizarre. That is until the events of the last week and a half. Now the rich are demanding a hand out from the poor. After having obtained obscene amounts of wealth by stealing from the poor, the rich, with a straight face mind you, are not asking but demanding an impossible hand out from the poor. They promise terrible things if we don't give them more money, as if terrible things are not already happening on a daily, now hourly basis. Take a moment to watch the beginning scene from HBO's "Deadwood". Fast forward to the 4:10 mark and watch from there. It's so apropos. NSFW

Nohing Under the Sun is Too Big to Fail

That's right. I'll say it right here. There is nothing under the sun that's too big to fail. Whenever I hear "Their just too big to fail" as an excuse for tossing the rule book and bailing out a big business or industry, I get really, really pissed. There's nothing under the sun, probably nothing in the Universe, that's too big to fail. I remember another old adage: "the bigger they are, the harder they fall." We are only delaying the inevitable. Oh, BTW, Oil saw it's largest one day gain since the '80s.

Are You a Conservative?

"What Is Conservatism and What Is Wrong with It?" This speaks nicely to the crux of the issue. Not the issue of Peak Oil. Peak Oil is a foregone conclusion. The issue is how we deal with Peak Oil.

Know thine enemy. Or at least know thine adversary. Republicans and NeoCons. They remind me of the seagulls in "Finding Nemo" via "The Sideshow".

And Factor X is What Threatens the United States the Most

The DOW is down almost 1000 points in three days. As always, "Oil, Smoke and Mirrors" predicted this two years ago.

Colin Campbell: "They're going to have to wipe out just mountains of capital"

Well, maybe not wipe out. Perhaps replace with taxpayer money would be better phraseology. But where will those taxpayer dollars come from? The wealth has accumulated at the top.

Chris Sanders: "And this is where Peak Oil comes in because the implication of Peak Oil is that oil prices are going to become more volatile, and that the average price of oil is going to remain structurally higher than it has been in decades. And if that happens then the economic value securing the American debt structure has got to be valued downwards by some factor...let's call it Factor X. And Factor X is the thing that threatens the United States most."

The economic value securing the American debt structure is collapsing, so the American debt structure is no longer secure.

The U.S. Government is throwing good money after bad in an attempt to keep the illusion going that an economy based purely on consumerism in light of declining energy can continue. Bush and his administration will be lucky if they aren't lynched soon.

They're going to have to wipe out just mountains of capital

From "Oil, Smoke and Mirrors":

Colin Campbell: "They're going to have to wipe out just mountains of capital."

The latest on Fannie May and Freddie Mac:

Mort Zuckerman: “We still don’t know where the bottom is”

Overwhelmed by the Options

Well, the price of oil and therefore gasoline has gone down since my last post. From $4.00 a gallon to $3.50. I'm curious to see how long it lasts. Of course the economy continues to sour, the unemployment rate went up to 6.1%, food prices continue to rise, and housing foreclosures/delinquencies continue to soar. I'm amazed the DOW is able to stay above 11000. With that kind of demand destruction I'm expecting the price of oil and gasoline to decline. But like the housing market, who among the rank and file give a shit if prices go down if you haven't got a job. I have a job thanks to the all these foreclosures, and the company I work for is hiring like gangbusters. I wonder what the Zeitgeist of the US will feel like when we've all become asset managers, debt collection specialists, or medical technicians. Debt and Death. The growth industries of the future.

Mountain Bike Monday

The magnitude of the issues facing us are unimaginable. I started this blog in the hopes of informing as many folks as possible of the near insurmountable issues that will result from Peak Oil. I see now that that is a lost cause as the biggest hurdle is people. Our Western culture simply will not acknowledge, much less act on, the catastrophe that is Peak Oil. Though I will continue to try and inform, my goal now is simply to chronicle the collapse of industrial man in light of the decline of the one true energy source that has allowed us to build the world we live in today.

I remember a comedian once wondered if we would recognise a homeless man on his first couple of days of homelessness. He wouldn't be dirty yet. Or hungry. His clothes would still be nice. And clean. He might even be clean shaven. Nothing to indicate how destitute he is except, perhaps, for the look in his eyes. I remembered this bit, though not the comedian, because the spectre of homelessness has hung over me off and on for 14 years. Now I equate the world, especially the West, to a man who has just become homeless. It is not apparent to the casual observer. Many people still have a place to live. They can still afford good food, nice clothes, even a big screen TV. And there are still some simple pleasures to be had.

Though the collapse will not be a pretty picture, there is still much to enjoy and be grateful for. In that vein I've decided to "lighten up" for a moment and present the one thing I truly enjoy: Biking. Specifically Mountain Biking, but any biking will do. One block from my apartment is my favorite trail for everyday riding. It is a gorgeous chunk of nature right in the hustle and bustle of the city. Back in May I took my camera on the trail to get some clips of the wonder and nature that is just down the street. At the time I wanted to show others, and myself, why it's so important to address the issue of Peak Oil. And to show off my bike. Anyway, here's the clip I took that includes my bike, and the wonderful trail that makes life worth living right now.



UPDATE: Couldn't get the video to upload. Seems to be an ongoing issue so will try some other time.

They'll be talking about the high price of food

This is a quote by Richard Heinberg from "Oil, Smoke and Mirrors". I mentioned this very informative video in my last post as well as the quote in its complete context. Here is the complete quote by Richard.

• "And yet people won't be talking about the Oil Peak. They'll be talking about the unemployment figures. They'll be talking about the high price of food. They’ll be talking about the fact that you can’t get on an airliner and travel any more because all the airline industry has collapsed. There are only a few carriers still in business, and the tickets are astronomically expensive. They’ll be talking about the latest war or terrorist incident. And they will have completely lost sight of the one event that caused all those effects."

Also note this quote from Colin Campbell.

• "They're going to have to wipe out just mountains of capital."

And one more from Richard Heinberg.

• "Peak Oil could, in fact, mean wide spread hunger and even famine on a global scale if we don't prepare for it."

I mention these quotes because they contain the clues I watch for in the news that indicate the impacts of Peak Oil are happening. The video was produced in 2006, but I've known about the virtually insurmountable impacts of Peak Oil since 2002. In 2006, the US economy was doing just fine even though many people were not. Housing prices were going up. The Stock market was going up. Everything was just hunky dory. But then I watched "Oil, Smoke and Mirrors". That quote hit me like a ton of bricks. The MSM was never going to seriously talk about Peak Oil. The Government was never going to acknowledge Peak Oil. The good citizens of the US were never going to talk about Peak Oil. But they will be talking about the beginning effects of Peak Oil. So I watched and listened. Nothing...for about a year. I breathed a sigh of relief because everything was still, you know, hunky dory. I knew Peak Oil was real and that we needed to start addressing the issue twenty years ago, but maybe we had time.

But then I started hearing echos of the above quotes. Because of the Housing/Credit crisis there have been billions of dollars written off. That's the mountains of capital Colin mentioned. Unemployment is rising at a frightening rate. The price of food is skyrocketing. There are food riots in the poorer economies. Still, the West seemed to be plugging along. Then yesterday I found this headline in the news.

• Britain urging return to wartime food frugality

with the subtitle

• Families urged to cut food waste to combat rising global prices

Peak Oil is here. Peak Oil is now. There is one undeniable truth about people. They can be very unpleasant when they're hungry. They are deadly when they are starving.

Peak Oil - Watch and Learn, Read and Understand

Oil reached a new high today. Stocks plummeted. The Dow was down over 135 points at the open, but have since rallied to being down only 100 points. This highlights the most important lesson that anyone can learn about our modern world. That is that oil is not just a commodity in our economy, it is the economy. Energy is the ability to do work. Less energy, less work. Declining energy, declining work. There is absolutely no other energy source that even comes close to the combination of energy density, transportability and range of use that oil has. It is this energy source that has allowed the world population to reach over 6.5 billion people. That energy source is declining, and most people do not know or believe in this issue much less the magnitude of it. Time is running out. Time may have already run out. But the only way we can even begin to find solutions to this problem is if the majority learns of the magnitude of the issues facing us. To that end I present two resources that have opened my eyes. The first is simply a web site called "Die Off". It is an alternate view of economics as it is taught today. The information is very extensive and highly controversial. You may never be able to read a paper, watch the news or read a blog through the same eyes ever again. That will be a good thing. It might even save your life though not your standard of living:

Die Off

The next is a documentary called "Oil, Smoke and Mirrors". It ties the impact of Peak Oil to the events we're witnessing today including 911. Here are three quotes from two of the most knowledgeable scholars on Peak Oil that I've found.

Richard Heinberg:

• "And yet people won't be talking about the Oil Peak. They'll be talking about the unemployment figures. They'll be talking about the high price of food. They’ll be talking about the fact that you can’t get on an airliner and travel any more because all the airline industry has collapsed. There are only a few carriers still in business, and the tickets are astronomically expensive. They’ll be talking about the latest war or terrorist incident. And they will have completely lost sight of the one event that caused all those effects."

Colin Campbell:

• "They're going to have to wipe out just mountains of capital."
• "Also, there is so much debate about this date of Peak (Oil). It really misses the point to a certain degree because whether the peak comes this year, next year, or in ten years time (it) doesn't really make that much difference because it's not a high peak. It's only the maximum of a rather gentle curve. And the real impact of that which is beginning to be realized is not the peak itself, but the vision of the long decline that follows peak. And that is a relentless, remorseless decline that goes on forever. At 2 or 3 percent per year that's not individually very much, but that eats into our supply very seriously and ever worse."

Does any of that sound familiar? Some may have noticed the source for the name of my blog is in one of the quotes by Colin Campbell. I believe it sums up the issue of Peak Oil quite nicely. The documentary was released in 2006. Since that time I have monitored the news for mention of the myriad effects caused by Peak Oil as outlined above by Richard Heinberg. If you have an hour to spare I urge you to watch "Oil, Smoke and Mirrors". If you have $20 dollars to spend I urge you to buy the DVD at their website. It has another hour or so of information on it.

Since 911 I have been trying desperately to make sense of the madness of the world today. There are many burning questions we all have as to why this great nation of our has fallen so far so fast. It seems to be continuing to fall at an increasing rate. I found the answers to those burning questions through many resources on the Web. None, however, has been as concise or as informative as these two.

Er....Ah....Hmmmm

Peak Oil. That is basically the gist of this blog. Those two simple words represent the greatest challenge the world has ever seen. It is more destructive than Katrina or the Midwest Floods, more deadly than the Indian Ocean Tsunami, more global than the Tambora Volcano eruption of 1815. If Global Warming is the "rock", then Peak Oil is the "hard place". And like Global Warming, Peak Oil is unfolding slowly. Also like Global Warming, Peak Oil has achieved momentum that is hard, maybe impossible to overcome. But unlike Global Warming, Peak Oil's impact is and will be uniquely human. On a more darkly positive note Peak Oil may in fact be the ultimate solution to Global Warming.
The purpose of this initial post is to try and impart the magnitude of the issue we're facing. There is much to say, much to learn, but I am poorly qualified for this task. Even so, every journey starts with the first step, and every blog starts with it's first entry. It is very important to get that out of the way. In future posts I hope to provide links to resources that I have found useful in understanding the fix we're in and to provide a forum from which this understanding can spread.